El Niño Drives Temperature

Here is a story you won’t see in the Arizona Daily Star.  Three Australasian researchers have shown that natural forces are the dominant influence on climate, in a study just published in the Journal of Geophysical Research. The research finds that finds that the El Niño -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key indicator of global atmospheric temperatures seven months later.

The abstract of the paper says in part: “The results showed that SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) accounted for 81% of the variance in tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics. Overall the results suggest that the Southern Oscillation exercises a consistently dominant influence on mean global temperature, with a maximum effect in the tropics, except for periods when equatorial volcanism causes ad hoc cooling. That mean global tropospheric temperature has for the last 50 years fallen and risen in close accord with the SOI of 5–7 months earlier shows the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for most of the temperature variation.”


McLean, J. D., C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter (2009), Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D14104, doi:10.1029/2008JD011637.

To see a broader view of natural climate change, see my article: Natural Climate Cycles.

One comment

  1. I can just see someone showing this study to Al Gore and him immediately putting his fingers in his ears, closing his eyes and saying, “Na na na na na”. Sadly, none of the “humans ruin everything” clan will bother to look at this, let alone consider what it actually means with regard to human-generated CO2 emissions.

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