The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released a draft summary of its upcoming report on climate change, and the media are hyping the scary scenarios. Typical is the headline in the Arizona Daily Star: “Scientists: More weather crises are on their way.”
If you think about it a minute, that headline is equivalent to this: “Scientists predict sun will rise tomorrow.” Of course we have had and will continue to have weather extremes.
The headline is all too familiar. Here is another headline from the New York Times:”Scientists Say Earth’s Warming Could Set Off Wide Disruptions.” That headline was from September 18, 1995.
In the 1995 article, the IPCC made some predictions, one of which we can now test. They predicted: “A striking retreat of mountain glaciers around the world, accompanied in the Northern Hemisphere by a shrinking snow cover in winter.”
It so happens that the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab keeps track of snow cover. The graph below shows that rather than a decrease, snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has been increasing since 1995:
We can also look at extreme high and low temperatures. The National Climate Data Center has a map and table here, which shows that for each state, most of the extreme high and low temperatures occurred before 1950. Of the 50 states, 29 had record lows and 35 had record highs prior to 1950.
We can also look at the trends for precipitation, drought, and hurricanes:
The United States Geological Survey studied the relationship between floods and rising carbon dioxide. The USGS found that for most of the country during the last 100 years, there is no strong statistical evidence for flooding increasing or decreasing with rising carbon dioxide. In the southwest however, they found that flooding has been decreasing with rising carbon dioxide.
“To capture the public imagination, we have to offer up some scary scenarios, make simplified dramatic statements and little mention of any doubts one might have. Each of us has to decide the right balance between being effective, and being honest.” –Dr. Stephen Schneider
The IPCC has lost all credibility except to the credulous press and those with a vested interest in maintaining the carbon dioxide myth.