The British Meteorological Office has a new weather-forecasting super-computer built at a cost of 41 million pounds sterling (approximately $65 million) . The computer is touted to be more powerful than 100,000 standard PCs, is capable of 1,000 billion calculations every second, and uses 1.2 megawatts of energy to run – enough to power a small town. The head of the Met office claims that this new computer “will enable the Met Office to deliver more accurate forecasts, from hours to a century ahead.”
Let’s see how it is doing so far. On 23 March 2012, the computer produced a forecast for the next three months: “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favors drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favors April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period.”
And here is what happened:
April: 2012 had wettest April for 100 years, Met Office says “It has been the wettest April in the UK for over 100 years, with some areas seeing three times their usual average, figures from the Met Office show. Some 121.8mm of rain has fallen, beating the previous record of 120.3mm which was set in 2000.”
June: June on course to be wettest in a century: Flooding, storms and persistent showers have blighted the country in recent weeks putting this June in line to become one of the soggiest in 100 years.
25 June: Spring is wettest in Britain for 250 years – England and Wales are on course for the wettest late spring and early summer for 250 years, experts said yesterday. June has just seen its fourth washout weekend and yet more downpours are forecast. Now it is feared combined rainfall for April, May and June will break the record of 13.2in (336mm) set in 1782 and be the highest since records began in 1766.
I was in Wales and Cornwall in June and can personally attest that June was definitely not dry.
This shows that super-computers and weather/climate models fail when the wrong assumptions are input: Garbage in-Garbage out. The new super-computer will, however, allow the Met Office to make their mistakes faster.
(H/t to Global Warming Policy Foundation)