Leaked IPCC report undercuts anthropogenic global warming

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is in the process of preparing its next major report (called AR5 for short) to be published next year. The IPCC has been a strong proponent of human-cause global warming via our carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels. The IPCC has always downplayed solar forcing saying that total solar irradiance (TSI) is too weak to make much of a difference. In that respect, they have a point. However, the IPCC has always ignored the other, stronger major solar variation, that of the sun’s changing magnetic field which controls the amount of cloud-forming galactic cosmic rays (GCR) reaching our atmosphere.

I reported last year on the CERN experiment which reconfirmed that cosmic rays have a strong influence on cloud formation and hence on climate. In the newly leaked draft report, the IPCC now admits to the “existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link.”

You can read the whole story about the leaks and their implications at Anthony Watts’ “Watts Up With That”(WUWT) blog here.

The IPCC authors “are admitting strong evidence (“many empirical relationships”) for enhanced solar forcing (forcing beyond total solar irradiance, or TSI), even if they don’t know what the mechanism is.” This directly undercuts the case for anthropogenic global warming.

Refer to WUWT for updates on this breaking story.

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4 comments

    1. I notice you post almost identical comments on other blogs. Perhaps you should demonstrate why I have the science wrong. Also read the TC commenting guidelines.

  1. I reported last year on the CERN experiment which reconfirmed that cosmic rays have a strong influence on cloud formation and hence on climate. In the newly leaked draft report, the IPCC now admits to the “existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link.”

    OK, so let’s see what effect this hypothesised link would have actually had on the climate, according to solar physicists:

    “We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two.

    The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.”

    Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II.

    Mike Lockwood and Claus Fröhlich.

  2. We can add this to the mix, a new paper by Willie Soon showing a connection between solar irradiance and temperature. Soon finds, “This newly discovered relationship between TSI and the EPTG represents the “missing link” that was implicit in the empirical relationship that Soon (2009) recently demonstrated to exist between multi-decadal TSI and Arctic and North Atlantic climatic change.”

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136468261200288X

    For many more references to solar forcing and temperature see:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/16/a-rebuttal-to-steven-sherwood-and-the-solar-forcing-pundits-of-the-ipcc-ar5-draft-leak/#more-75494

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