More evidence that climate models are wrong

“It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is; it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.” – Richard Feynmann

“No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.”– Albert Einstein

Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr. John Christy have published a graph comparing the predictions of 73 climate models versus the observations of radiosondes and satellites for tropical mid-troposphere global temperatures.  On the graph, the “spaghetti” are the model predictions and the heavy black line is the average of the models.  Actual observed temperature measurements (boxes and circles) from four balloon-borne radiosonde data sets and two satellite data sets are show to be lower than even the lowest model prediction since 1998 and lower than the average model prediction since 1979.

CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT-5-yr-means1

It is obvious from the graph that model predictions diverge markedly from reality.  Why?  The models are programed with a false assumption, namely, that carbon dioxide is a major driver of global temperature.  That hypothesis further assumes that as carbon dioxide warms the atmosphere, more water will evaporate (water vapor is a much stronger greenhouse gas), thereby producing “an enhanced greenhouse effect” i.e., a strong positive feedback.

It appears however, that the feedback is very small and perhaps negative. The models are wrong, probably because water vapor has a net negative feedback: clouds reflect sunlight and water vapor removes heat by convection. NASA says that even carbon dioxide can act as a coolant at the top of the atmosphere, see here.

We see also that although atmospheric carbon dioxide has been rising, global relative humidity and specific humidity have been decreasing according to data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory(see graphs below).  That, too, contradicts the modeling assumption. Relative humidity is the percentage of water vapor in the air relative to the maximum possible water content at a specific temperature.  Specific humidity is the ratio of water vapor to dry air in a particular mass. See here for a more detailed explanation.

Global-humidity

 

Specific-humidity

The models are wrong because of wrong assumptions.  Unfortunately, much government policy and spending billions of dollars are based on these faulty assumptions.

Temperature and humidity are not the only failures of climate models.  See: As Floods Hit Eastern Germany, Recent Potsdam Climate Institute Model Warned Of Summertime “Water Shortages”!

A new paper in Science, the journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science says that models fail because they do not provide “an adequate description of basic processes like cloud formation, moist convection, and [air] mixing.”

See also:

A Basic Error in Climate Models

Failure of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Hypothesis

The Case Against the IPCC and Proponents of Dangerous Anthropological Global Warming

2 comments

  1. The IPCC projections are reasonable accurate while the contrarian projections are missing the mark by a great deal. It seems to me the author has this backwards.

    1. Well, Renewable guy, it looks like you fell for “The Ultimate ‘Skeptical Science’ cherry pick” as explained here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/10/the-ultimate-skeptical-science-cherry-pick/

      Briefly, the graph you show from the propagandists at “Skeptical Science” has a different starting date from the Spencer-Christy graph, that’s the cherry pick. The SkS graph starts at an artificial low caused by the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991. Second, SkS uses surface temperatures which have many problems including influence by the urban heat island effect. Spencer-Christy use the satellite and radiosonde atmospheric temperatures.

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