As of the end of October, the “pause” in global warming has reached 17 years according to the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) satellite data sets. The temperature plot below is from November 1, 1996 to October 31, 2013; that’s 204 months =17 years. The significance of this is discussed in detail here. I will summarize:
In spite of steadily rising emissions and atmospheric content of carbon dioxide, the global temperature has failed to rise in lockstep as predicted by climate models. The temperature spike in 1998 is attributed to a “super” El Nino.
Some climate scientists, attempting to explain away the lack of warming, claimed that pauses of 10 years or so is just natural variation and would not falsify the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis. In 2011, Santer et al., wrote a paper published in Geophysical Research Letters titled: “Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale.”
The paper concludes: “Because of the pronounced effect of interannual noise on decadal trends, a multi-model ensemble of anthropogenically-forced simulations displays many 10-year periods with little warming. A single decade of observational TLT [temperature of the lower troposphere] data is therefore inadequate for identifying a slowly evolving anthropogenic warming signal. Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature.” So, 17 years became to new magic number.
Well, it has now been 17 years with no net warming. No signal of a man-made warming due to carbon dioxide emissions has been identified. This shows at the very least that the climate models, upon which all dire predictions are based, are wrong.
It also indicates that any warming attributable to carbon dioxide is very small compared to natural variation and should not be cause of concern. All the regulations attempting to reduce carbon dioxide emissions are fighting a phantom menace. And the billions of dollars spend on climate research and supposed mitigated of the phantom menace have been wasted.
For some real climate science see: