People for the West -Tucson
Newsletter, January, 2021
PO Box 86868, Tucson, AZ 85754-6868
pfw-tucson@cox.net
Real environmentalism can go hand in hand with natural resource production, private property rights, and access to public lands
Bye-Bye 2020, Hello “1984″
The year 2020 was tough. There was/is the virus and the governments’ over-reaction with lockdowns and mandates which some think were worse than the disease. “‘Obey the science’ has come to mean ‘Believe what we tell you and do as you are told'” (Bruce Pardy, Financial Post). Personal liberty and the economy fell victim. With the election of Joe Biden as president and democratic control of Congress, things may get worse. Using the excuse of climate change, there may be many changes in energy policy all of which will be detrimental to the economy and even to personal freedom.
We start with some good news, then examine Biden policy farther down:
Happy New Year! Start 2021 with renewed hope thanks to good climate-news stories
from the Global Warming Policy Forum
A list of positive climate stories from the last 12 months (link)
January: Global deaths from natural disasters drop to record low.
February: Staying power of Kilimanjaro snow defies Al Gore’s gloomy forecast.
March: Sea level rise was a constant phenomenon even before industrialisation, new study finds.
April: Earth Day at 50: None of its eco-doomsday predictions have come true.
May: Scientists discover that coral reefs can adapt to warming ocean temperatures.
June: Instead of extinction, Antarctic penguins could experience ‘population boom’ due to global warming.
July: Siberian heatwaves are fairly common: Hottest summer on record was in 1917.
August: No trend in hurricane activity in 167 years, new empirical study shows.
September: Not scared: Research reveals “climate-complacency” across Europe.
October: UN disasters report reveals big decline in climate-related disasters since 2000.
November: New footage reveals Netflix faked walrus climate deaths.
December: Scientists discover Arctic warming of Greenland ice sheet driven by geothermal activity. ☼
Ten climate predictions for 2020 that went horribly wrong (That’s good)
Wrong Again: 2020’s Failed Climate Doomsaying
by Steve Milloy
2020 has been the wildest and most unpredictable year in the memory of most people. But did the climate doom that was predicted to occur in or by 2020 materialize? What follows are 10 predictions made for 2020 and what really happened. As it turns out, climate doomsayers weren’t seeing so 20-20 when it came to 2020. (Read more) ☼
BIDEN POLICIES:
Biden Names Climate Alarmists to All Top Environment and Energy Positions
by Myron Ebell
President-elect Joe Biden announced his choices for the top environment and energy positions in his administration. All are climate alarmists, which confirms earlier indications that the Biden administration is going to be organized around climate change and energy-rationing policies despite the fact that polls continue to show that most Americans rate climate change near the bottom of their public concerns. (Read more and here: Biden is building a new environmental office within the White House?) ☼
Biden’s Energy Plans Are Expensive—and Dangerous
by Brian Leyland and Tom Harris
Joe Biden wants the electric grid of the United States to be powered solely by energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide by 2035. In the Unity Task Force plan that the former vice-president released with Senator Bernie Sanders, the commitment is made that:
Within five years, we will install 500 million solar panels, including eight million solar roofs and community solar energy systems, and 60,000 made-in-America wind turbines.
Overhauling the entire electric grid, which some call the world’s largest machine, and converting much of it to wind and solar power, is not just a momentous task. It is both dangerous and unbelievably expensive. The only reason Biden has been able to get away with such a preposterous plan is that many people actually believe that wind and solar power are cheaper than fossil fuel-powered generation. They conclude that a transition to a system supplied by wind and solar power will reduce consumer costs. Nothing could be further from the truth. (Read more)
Biden is ignoring nuclear energy which is reliable (unlike wind and solar) and does not emit carbon dioxide.
Related: Six Issues the Promoters of the Green New Deal Have Overlooked ☼
Climate Experts Sound The Alarm On Biden’s $2 Trillion Climate Plan
by Varun Hukeri, Daily Caller
President-elect Joe Biden has made addressing climate change one of his top priorities but climate experts said his proposed policies would lead to higher costs and no significant reduction in global temperatures. “It is very important to understand just how expensive Biden’s climate plan is and just how much harm it would do to the American economy as well as American household budgets,” Heartland Institute president James Taylor told reporters in a press conference. “This puts the average American household on the hook for $17,000 per household as a result of this climate plan.” (Read more) ☼
Nationwide Blackouts Will Be America’s New Reality Under Biden
By Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris
The power disaster unfolding in California will soon occur across the country if Joe Biden gets his way. The Golden State has been sweeping away the forms of energy that have provided reliable electricity for decades, under the same agenda the former Vice-President is planning for America as a whole. Power outages are now commonplace in California. Last summer, the state suffered its first rolling blackouts in nearly 20 years. Imagine if this happened in Chicago in the middle of winter. California’s trouble is explained by officials who now openly admit to an over-reliance on wind and solar power. (Read more)
Related: Clean-Burning Natural Gas Banned In New Buildings In Oakland, CA ☼
Beware The Power-Mad Left Trying To Control The Weather
By Jack Hellner
Americans have many choices in electric-powered vehicles these days, yet even with subsidies, only around 2% of Americans choose to buy one.
Joe Biden, Gavin Newsom, Barack Obama, General Motors, and others, corporate and human, do not believe Americans should have a choice. They want to force everyone into inefficient, expensive electric vehicles in a very short time.
They all claim that they are basing their government edicts on “science” but there is not one piece of credible scientific data from the last 150 years that shows a direct correlation between oil use and temperatures, sea levels, and storm activity. (Read more) ☼
Marc Morano: We Will Go From COVID Lockdowns To “Climate Lockdowns” Under Biden
Climate Depot publisher Marc Morano warned that Biden and Democrats are using the COVID lockdown model to prepare for “climate lockdowns” in an interview Monday night with FOX News host Tucker Carlson.
“The CEO of Harris Polling lamented that climate went from a top-tier issue in his poll, to second to last of all issues in the past year,” Morano said. “So they’re freaked out that no one is talking and no one cares about climate among the public.” “What they’re trying to do, you saw Biden elude to it there with ‘Build Back Better.’
They’re trying to essentially use the COVID lockdown model for the climate emergency model. And they are going to go from COVID lockdowns to climate lockdowns,” Morano said. “Senator Merkley (D-OR) came out today and is urging a President Joe Biden to declare a national climate emergency which would give him emergency powers that he could bypass democracy, much in the same way that blue-state governors have already done with the COVID lockdowns,” Morano said. (Source) ☼
OTHER NEWS:
Causation Of Climate Change, And The Scientific Method
by Francis Menton
The proposition we are addressing is the one for which you see a constant drumbeat of advocacy. It runs something like, “the climate is changing, and we are the cause.” OK, nobody denies that the climate is changing; but how about the “we are the cause” part? What is the proof?
Let’s apply the scientific method. We start with the basic maxim that “correlation does not prove causation.” Instead, causation is established by disproof of all relevant alternative (“null”) hypotheses.
The hypothesis is “humans are causing significant climate change.” An appropriate null hypothesis would be “observed climate change can be fully explained by some combination of natural factors.” How might you test this?
The most obvious test would be to ask, in earth’s recent history, has it been warmer than the present — the present having been the subject of significant human greenhouse gas emissions? If periods in the recent past prior to human emissions have been warmer than the present, then quite obviously some combination of “natural factors” is sufficient to bring about temperatures as warm or warmer than we are experiencing. (Read more) ☼
How Busy Was the 2020 Hurricane Season?
by Neil L. Frank
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, with 30 named storms, is going down in the record books as having the most named storms of any season on record. But are we comparing apples and apples—or apples and oranges?
Some people blame the recent increase in named storms—tropical storms and hurricanes—on global warming, and infer that we must stop spewing CO2 into the atmosphere to curb the warming and so prevent the increase in storms and the damage they cause.
But the raw data for hurricane history is contaminated by changes in observing tools, in our understanding, and in the philosophy of whether a storm should be named. What explains the increase in named storms? Was it an abnormal meteorological event, or are there other explanations? To answer this requires some discussion of the origin of Atlantic storms.
Contrary to the claim that global warming is causing more named storms, over the past several decades the number of major hurricanes hitting the U.S. coastline has fallen. There were none for twelve years (2005–2017). This was the longest period on record without a major hurricane. On average, one major hurricane crosses the U.S. border every two years.
In contrast to mainstream media claims, there has been no increase in Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades. As a matter of fact, world-wide there has been a 5–10% decrease in hurricane-type storms in the last 50 years. (Read more)
See also: Hurricane strength and frequency just part of natural variation ☼
New Archaeological Finds Shows Earth Is Typically Warmer than Today
By H. Sterling Burnett
Archaeologists have published a new paper in New Scientist that confirms what previous research has shown: numerous periods during recent history have been as warm as or warmer than the present.
The paper, “Climate change has revealed a huge haul of ancient arrows in Norway,” discusses the findings of researchers from the Universities of Cambridge, Oslo, and Bergen. The researchers discovered a “treasure trove” of arrows, arrowheads, clothing, and other artifacts, recently uncovered by a receding ice in a mountainous region of southern Norway. The oldest arrows and artifacts date from around 4100 BC. The youngest artifacts date from approximately AD 1300, at the end of the Medieval Warm Period. Because present temperatures are only now exposing some of the artifacts were deposited when no ice covered the ground, temperatures were clearly warmer during the many periods when artifacts were deposited. (Read more) (Full study) See also: Modern Iceland’s Climate Is Colder With More Ice Than Any Other Time In The Last 8000 Years Except The 1800s
Related: Eastern Alps may have been ice-free in the time of Ötzi the Iceman
From The New Scientist
Glaciers in the Ötztal Alps in Austria are currently melting and may be lost within two decades, but this might not be the first time humans have seen this kind of change. A new analysis reveals that glaciers in this region formed just before or perhaps even within the lifetime of Ötzi the Iceman, a mummified body found just 12 kilometres away in 1991. The glacier’s age means it formed during a time called the mid-Holocene warm period, when Earth’s climate was warmer than it is now. It is also dome-shaped, which Bohleber says is rare in the Alps and means that the ice has seen very little movement over time, meaning we can use it to study the climate when it formed. (Read more) ☼
New York can’t buy its way out of blackouts
By David Wojick
New York City will soon be home to the world’s biggest utility-scale battery system, designed to back up its growing reliance on intermittent renewables. At 400 MWh this batch of batteries will be more than triple the 129 MWh world leader in Australia.
In reality the scale here is incredibly insignificant. Here is the reality when it comes to the scale needed to reliably back up intermittent renewables. For simplicity let us suppose New York City is 100% wind powered. Including solar in the generating mix makes it more complicated but does not change the unhappy outcome very much.
NYC presently peaks at around 32,000 MW needed to keep the lights on. If Mr. Biden makes all the cars and trucks electric it might be closer to 50,000 MW but let’s stick to reality.
This peak occurs during summer heat waves which are caused by stagnant high pressure systems called Bermuda highs. These highs often last for a week and because they are stagnant there is no wind power generation. Wind turbines require something like sustained winds of 10 mph to move the blades and more like a whistling 30 mph to generate full power. During a Bermuda high folks are happy to get the occasional 5 mph breeze. These huge highs cover many states so it is not like we can get the juice from next door.
So for reliability we need, say, seven days of backup, which is 168 hours. Here’s the math:
32,000 MW x 168 hours = 5,376,000 MWh of stored juice needed to just make it. Mind you for normal reliability we usually add 20% or so. Did I mention electric cars?
It is easy to see that a trivial 400 MWh is not “significant scale.” It is infinitesimal scale. Nothing. Nada. Might as well not exist. (Read more) ☼
Five Reasons Why Internal Combustion Engines Are Here to Stay
By Robert Bryce
The first and most important is price. EVs are still too expensive for low- and middle-income consumers, as was made clear to me during a recent visit to Costco. Displayed near the entrance was a brand new EV, the Chevy Bolt. The price was a jaw-dropping $46,450.
The second reason is mining. Replacing all the ICE vehicles in the U.S. with EVs would require stunning amounts of commodities like cobalt, lithium, and copper. Electrifying all U.S. motor vehicles would require roughly 18 times the world’s current cobalt production, about nine times global neodymium output, nearly seven times global lithium production, and about four times world copper production.
The third reason that the ICE will stick around has to do with a basic metric in physics: energy density. Yes, batteries are getting better and so are the cars that use them. But today’s batteries are still no match for oil when it comes to gravimetric energy density, or the amount of energy contained per kilogram. Gasoline and diesel contain about 80 times more energy per unit of weight than the best lithium-ion batteries.
Fourth, internal combustion engines keep getting smaller, faster, more efficient, and more powerful.
The final reason the ICE will endure is the ease of refueling. ☼
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Removes Gray Wolves from Endangered Species List
by H. Sterling Burnett
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), an agency within the Department of Interior (DOI) has determined gray wolf populations in the lower 48 states have recovered from their near extirpation and are thriving, allowing them to be safely removed from the Endangered Species List. FWS’s delisting action puts states in charge of wolf population management in across the Rocky Mountains and in Western Great lake states.
FWS delisting does not include the experimental Mexican wolf population introduced in recent years in Southwestern states. (Read more)
Bombshell finding: Automobile tires, not climate change – is killing west coast salmon
by Anthony Watts
From the “where the rubber meets the road” department, comes this bombshell finding that flies in the face of claims about the universal boogeyman of “climate change” killing salmon due to it supposedly raising water temperature in streams where they spawn.
Just last year, PBS and Popular Science were screaming about “climate change” being the cause with headlines likeClimate Change is Killing Salmon in the Pacific Northwest and Climate change is cooking salmon in the Pacific Northwest
It seems they were wrong, dead wrong.
New University of Washington research published December 3rd in the journal Science, exonerates “climate change” in the salmon killing caper and finds a surprise villain; an additive to automobile tires, not “climate change.” In fact, the researchers specifically ruled out climate-driven temperature increase as a cause.
Basically, the process is like this: stormwater runoff carries tire wear rubber particles into streams from the nearby roads, where a chemical called 6PPD-quinone, a biproduct from the 6PPD preservative added on tires to prevent breakdown by ozone, leeches into the water. It has been determined that this chemical is highly toxic to salmon. Researchers say they identified 6PPD-quinone as the “smoking gun” behind salmon deaths in freshwater streams. (Read more) ☼
Evaluating the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing sector
Nedal T. Nassar et al. Science Advances 21 Feb 2020: Vol. 6, no. 8, eaay8647 (link)
Abstract
Trade tensions, resource nationalism, and various other factors are increasing concerns regarding the supply reliability of nonfuel mineral commodities. This is especially the case for commodities required for new and emerging technologies ranging from electric vehicles to wind turbines. In this analysis, we use a conventional risk-modeling framework to develop and apply a new methodology for assessing the supply risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Specifically, supply risk is defined as the confluence of three factors: the likelihood of a foreign supply disruption, the dependency of U.S. manufacturers on foreign supplies, and the ability of U.S. manufacturers to withstand a supply disruption. The methodology is applied to 52 commodities for the decade spanning 2007–2016. The results indicate that a subset of 23 commodities, including cobalt, niobium, rare earth elements, and tungsten, pose the greatest supply risk. This supply risk is dynamic, shifting with changes in global market conditions. ☼
SOME GOOD REFERENCES:
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) is what its name suggests: an international panel of nongovernment scientists and scholars who have come together to understand the causes and consequences of climate change. Because we are not predisposed to believe climate change is caused by human greenhouse gas emissions, we are able to look at evidence the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ignores. Because we do not work for any governments, we are not biased toward the assumption that greater government activity is necessary. Get their reports here: http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science Summary: 25 pages
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts Summary: 20 pages (full report 1078 pages)
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels Summary: 26 pages
See also my post: A review of the state of climate science
THOUGHTS TO PONDER:
“What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know. It’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.”- Mark Twain
“Better a question that cannot be answered than an answer that cannot be questioned.” – Attributed to Richard Feynman,
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There is never a democracy that did not commit suicide.” – John Adams
“Real liberty is neither found in despotism or the extremes of democracy, but in moderate governments.” – Alexander Hamilton
“A wise and frugal government … shall restrain men from injuring one another, shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government.” —Thomas Jefferson (1801)
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Our Mission
1) Support private property rights.
2) Support multiple use management of federal lands for agriculture, livestock grazing, mining, oil and gas production, recreation, timber harvesting and water development activities.
3) Support a balance of environmental responsibility and economic benefit for all Americans by urging that environmental policy be based on good science and sound economic principles.
Newsletters can be viewed online on Jonathan’s Wryheat Blog:
https://wryheat.wordpress.com/
See my essay on climate change:
https://wryheat.wordpress.com/climate-in-perspective/
and
https://wryheat.wordpress.com/2019/01/03/a-review-of-the-state-of-climate-science/
The Constitution is the real contract with America.
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People for the West – Tucson, Inc.
PO Box 86868
Tucson, AZ 85754-6868
Jonathan DuHamel, President & Editor
Dr. John Forrester, Vice President
Lonni Lees, Associate Editor
People for the West – Tucson, Inc. is an Arizona tax-exempt, 501(c)(3) corporation. Newsletter subscriptions are free.
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, any copyrighted material herein is distributed without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this information for non-profit research and educational purposes only.
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