Ice Ages and Glacial Epochs

If you have been reading my series on the geological history of Arizona (see Article Index), you may have noticed that the Earth has plunged into an ice age every 145 million years or so. But wait, haven’t ice ages occurred more frequently? No. There is confusion because the term “ice age” is frequently misused by Journalists (and often by many geologists) when they really mean glacial epoch. So what is the difference? An ice age consists of several glacial epochs separated by warmer interglacial periods.

A glacial epoch is a time during which much of the earth’s surface is covered by glaciers. The frequency and duration of glacial epochs are related to the position and orientation of the earth with respect to the sun. The location of the continents also influences the severity of glacial epochs because continents confine ocean currents. For the last 500,000 years of our current ice age, the glacial epoch-interglacial cycle has had a periodicity of 100,000 years. Prior to 500,000 years ago, the glacial-interglacial cycle was 41,000 years. We are now enjoying an interglacial period.

Ice Ages

Our current ice age, called the Pleistocene, started about 2.6 million years ago. Ice ages are related to the position of the solar system within the galaxy. Ice ages have occurred whenever the solar system passes through one of the five known spiral arms of our galaxy, which occurs at intervals of about 145 million years (± 10 million years).

What do stars have to do with ice ages? The hypothesis, greatly simplified is this: Star density within the spiral galactic arms is much greater than in the galactic disk, hence, the flux of cosmic rays is much greater. Cosmic rays penetrating our atmosphere collide with molecules in the air and produce ionization. The ionized particles attract water and produce more clouds than normal. The clouds reflect sunlight which causes cooling. There is both observational and experimental evidence to support this hypothesis. Cosmic ray flux can be deduced from the so-called cosmogenic nuclides, such as beryllium-10, carbon-14, and chlorine-36, as measured in ancient sediments, trees, shells, and in meteorites. The geologic reconstruction of temperature is based on oxygen-18 isotopes from fossils and cave stalagmites. Also, glaciation leaves distinctive deposits and land-forms.

In the graph below, the top panel shows several calculated cosmic ray flux reconstructions. In the bottom panel, that curve is flipped to represent the cooling effect. Notice that the cosmic ray flux coincides with the geologic reconstruction of ice ages. (The green “residual” curve represents the mathematical variance between models and observations.)

Cosmic-flux-and-temp

Glacial Epochs

Glacial epochs within ice ages seem to be controlled by the relationship of the earth to the sun. There are three main variations called Milankovitch cycles (after Serbian geophysicist Milutin Milankoviæ who first calculated the cycles): Orbital Eccentricity, Axial Obliquity, and Precession of the Equinoxes. All these cycles affect the amount and location of sunlight impinging on the earth. The following explanation of the cycles are summarized from The Resilient Earth:

Eccentricity cycle of 100,000 years

Earth’s orbit goes from measurably elliptical to nearly circular in a cycle that takes around 100,000 years. When Earth’s orbital eccentricity is at its peak (~9%), seasonal variation reaches 20-30%. Additionally, a more eccentric orbit will change the length of seasons in each hemisphere by changing the length of time between the vernal and autumnal equinoxes. The variation in eccentricity doesn’t change regularly over time, like a sine wave. This is because Earth’s orbit is affected by the gravitational attraction of the other planets in the solar system.

Where we are now: Earth’s current orbital eccentricity is 0.0167, which is relatively circular. Presently, Earth’s distance from the Sun at perihelion, on January 3rd, is 91 million miles. Earth’s distance from the Sun at aphelion, on July 4th, is 95 million miles. This difference between the aphelion and perihelion causes Earth to receive 7% more solar radiation in January than in July. Currently, Earth’s orbital eccentricity is close to the minimum of its cycle. There is also a weak variation cycle of 413,000 years.

Axial Obliquity cycle of 41,000 years

The second Milankovitch cycle involves changes in obliquity, or tilt, of Earth’s axis which varies on a 41,000 year cycle from 22.1° to 24.5°. The smaller the tilt, the less seasonal variation there is between summer and winter at middle and high latitudes. For small tilt angles, the winters tend to be milder and the summers cooler. Cool summer temperatures are thought more important than cold winters, for the growth of continental ice sheets. This implies that smaller tilt angles lead to more glaciation.  Where we are now: Currently, axial tilt is approximately 23.45 degrees, reduced from 24.50 degrees just a thousand years ago.

Precession cycle of 23,000- 25,800 years

The third cycle is due to precession of the spin axis. As a result of a wobble in Earth’s spin, the orientation of Earth in relation to its orbital position changes. This occurs because Earth, as it spins, bulges slightly at its equator. The equator is not in the same plane as the orbit of Earth and other objects in the solar system. The gravitational attraction of the Sun and the Moon on Earth’s equatorial bulge tries to pull Earth’s spin axis into perpendicular alignment with Earth’s orbital plane. Earth’s rotation is counterclockwise [viewed from above the north pole]; gravitational forces make Earth’s spin axis move clockwise in a circle around its orbital axis. This phenomenon is called precession of the equinoxes because, over time, this backward rotation causes the seasons to shift.

The full cycle of equinox precession takes 25,800 years to complete. Due to the eccentricity cycle, Earth is closest to the Sun in January and farther away in July, but the northern hemisphere is tilted away. Due to precession, the reverse will be true 12,900 years from now. The Northern Hemisphere will experience summer in December and winter in June. The North Star will no longer be Polaris because the axis of Earth’s rotation will be pointing at the star Vega instead.

Individually, each of the three cycles affect insolation patterns. When taken together, they can partially cancel or reinforce each other in complicated ways.

Glacial epochs can be triggered when tilt is small, eccentricity is large, and perihelion, when Earth is closest to Sun, occurs during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter. Perihelion during the Northern Hemisphere winter results in milder winters but cooler summers, conditions that keep snow from melting over the summer. Deglaciation is triggered when perihelion occurs in Northern Hemisphere summer and Earth’s tilt is near its maximum. There are other factors which act to enhance the forcing effects of the cycles. These include various feedback mechanisms such as snow and ice increasing Earth’s albedo, changes in ocean circulation and enhanced greenhouse heating due to increased CO2 and water vapor concentrations.

Solar Cycles

The sun itself goes through cycles of solar intensity and magnetic flux. When the cycles are in a strong phase, the amount of cosmic rays entering the atmosphere is reduced, there are fewer clouds to block the sun, so it is warmer. When solar cycles wane, as is beginning to happen now, more cosmic rays enter the atmosphere and produce more clouds which block the sun, so it becomes cooler.

The number of sunspots (hence magnetic flux) varies on an average cycle of 11 years. There are also 87-year (Gliessberg) and 210-year (DeVriess-Suess) cycles in the amplitude of the 11-year sunspot cycle which combine to form an approximately 1,500-year cycle of warming and cooling. So far, there is no evidence that atmospheric carbon dioxide has anything to do with the cause of ice ages or glacial epochs.  The graph below shows the correlation between temperature and sunspot cycles, and only coincidental correlation with carbon dioxide.

Temp-vs-solar

 

See also: Climate change in perspective, a tutorial for policy makers

References:

Hoffman, D.L. and Simmons, A., 2008, The Resilient Earth, an online book: http://theresilientearth.com.

Shaviv, N.J., 2003, The spiral structure of the Milky Way, cosmic rays, and ice age epochs on Earth, New Astronomy 8, 39.

Shaviv, N.J., and Veizer, Jan, 2003, Celestial Driver of Phanerozoic Climate, GSA Today, July 2003.

Veizer, Jan, 2005, Celestial Climate Driver: A Perspective from Four Billion Years of the Carbon Cycle, Geoscience Canada, V. 32, no. 1.

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7 comments

  1. I am going to have to print out this article so I can read it later. TMI in such a short space. LOL I will have to read it and use it as a defense against the global warming folks. Just waiting for the ice!!!

    Thanks again for writing these articles.

  2. Very well written Jonathan. What was happening at the time of “the little ice age”? It has always been my understanding that the onset was not gradual but  occurred very quickly – over a time span of a very few years and not centuries. If that be the case, it would seem that global cooling could be a much larger threat to our human experience than global warming.

    1. According to the scientific literature, the “little ice age”  and other warm-cold cycles since the end of the last glacial epoch, are correlated very closely with  solar cycles.  Its onset was fast, about  10-15 years, which is also close to the sunspot cycle periodicity.  See the link above for Natural Climate Cycles.

      1. I should also point out that we are now entering a new sunspot cycle which has few sunspots, a characteristic that is the same as the cycle which precipitated the “little ice age.”

  3. Jonathan, I am new to your blog and have not had a chance to read your work, but I do have some questions, which you may have answered.

    If the planet average temperature has not increased in 10 or 11 years and the amount of carbon dioxide has increased over that time, is there a correlation between global warming and carbon dioxide?

    Is carbon dioxide a driven of global warming or should I say climate change? 

    Will the increased levels of carbon dioxide provide impetus for new plant and tree growth?

    Thanks,

    1. The coincidence of rising temperature and rising carbon dioxide occurs only by chance and because temperature controls the solubility of carbon dioxide in the oceans; i.e., when temperatures rise, the oceans can hold less carbon dioxide so more is exsolved into the atmosphere, see my blog: Al Gore’s Favorite Graph. http://tinyurl.com/nxsw48
      See also Your Carbon Footprint Doesn’t Matter http://tinyurl.com/ncvn7b
      Carbon dioxide is not a significant driver of temperature and there is no empirical evidence to show it does. Even the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) who have spent 20 years and published four major reports fail to provide any evidence. All they do is report scenarios from computer modeling, which seems to be based on erroneous assumptions,
      see A Basic Error in Climate Models      http://tinyurl.com/mx539o
      and The Assumed Authority      http://tinyurl.com/nfyo9n
      Also, the earth has experienced ice age when atmospheric carbon dioxide was more than ten times higher than now. See my series on the geological history of Arizona under the geology category.

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